Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Good Riddance 2020! Our Predictions for 2021…
Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith from MBMB in the tenth episode of Grocery Guru.
You Can Read the Full 2021 Predictions Episode Transcript Below:
Darren A. Smith:
Welcome to episode 10, with the Grocery Guru that is Andrew Grant. How are you?
Andrew Grant:
Hello Darren. Yes, Merry Christmas.
Darren A. Smith:
Merry Christmas to you. We’re the 17th December, not long until the big one, until the big, fat man comes.
Andrew Grant:
Yeah. One week, one week, six nights, seven nights, something like that. Yeah.
Darren A. Smith:
Seven nights. All right. In this episode we said that we would talk about predictions for ’21, trying to put 2020 behind us with a big boo and a mask.
Andrew Grant:
Yeah. No. Absolutely. I mean, obviously, it’s been a pretty horrible year… everybody around the planet. We won’t be doing this again until it is 2021. So yeah, farewell 2020, won’t be missed. What’s 2021 going to look like? I’ve been thinking of a few things that may or may not happen. I don’t know about you if you have any predictions?
Darren A. Smith:
Well, I’ve got a few predictions, so I’m going to share my first one with you. I’ve got a few and I’m sure you have too. I’m going to predict that the title of the national account manager is going to be wiped. What I mean by that is national account managers traditionally looked after the account, looked after the buyer, did the negotiations. I think they’re all going to be turning into shopper insights managers, insights managers, category managers. I think it’s going to go.
Andrew Grant:
And NAM becomes a SIM.
Darren A. Smith:
And NAM becomes a SIM, yes.
Andrew Grant:
I think we talked about that last week, didn’t we? Absolutely. I think you said that any national account manager that’s been [inaudible 00:03:19] months and maybe is slightly worried about his or her future, the future gets on top of the data. Become an expert at turning that data into insight so that you can sit on Zoom with your supermarket buyers and show them that you know their shoppers better than they do.
Darren A. Smith:
Like it, like it. All right. That’s my first prediction, call me Nostradamus. What’s yours?
Andrew Grant:
Mine, I think this is a very, very safe bet of £10 of your money, Darren. I know you don’t like spending your money on bets. But Amazon gets added to GSCOP, so the Grocery Code Adjudicator makes Amazon the 14th, I think I would be right, the 14th retailer to be covered by the code. With all this COVID stuff Amazon’s business has just skyrocketed this year, and possibly almost under the radar. But I think 2021 will be the year when the new adjudicator goes, “This is a massive, massive food business now.” We’re also going to have the first Amazon ghost stores, the checkout-less, completely checkout-less electronic stores. They’ll probably open first quarter. And probably just the publicity [inaudible 00:04:39] publicity over those will raise the awareness. So yeah, Amazon to be added to GSCOP.
Darren A. Smith:
Okay. All right. I think you’re right, to make 14. So that will be Mark White, the new GCA Groceries Code Adjudicator.
Andrew Grant:
Yeah. If you’re him you’re just coming into that fabled first 100 days, what’s the thing that you can say you’ve done in your first 100 days?
Darren A. Smith:
Very true. Very true. All right. All right. My prediction-
Andrew Grant:
I think that’s a good headline.
Darren A. Smith:
Sorry, go on. A good headline?
Andrew Grant:
No, a good 100-day headline for him is, “Yeah, I’ve added Amazon to the list of covered retailers.”
Darren A. Smith:
Very true. Very true. All right. So currently 39% of us buy our groceries online. So that’s 39%, so let’s call it 40%, 4 out of 10 of us are buying groceries online. I’m going to make an easy prediction, 2021 that’s going to topple above 50, which means one in two people are buying their groceries online.
Andrew Grant:
I can see that by the middle of next year. I mean, the current trend rate we’ll be there April, May time. Yeah.
Darren A. Smith:
Here’s my bit to add to that. I think what might happen is the shop falls into two, the boring I’ve got the toilet rolls, the kitchen rolls, the washing powder, blah, blah, blah, coming online. But then I want to go out for a sort of a treat, or as we call it in our family, a morsel shop where I buy those little things that are really nice, like king prawns in garlic or something.
Andrew Grant:
Yeah. Well, I think that will be potentially the saviour of the high street. They’ll order their big shop of toilet rolls and bulky stuff from the online retailer of their choice, but then they’ll want to go to farm shops and independent delis. People do love to get out there and shop. I mean, particularly the Brits, we love to get out there and browse and shop and mingle. I don’t think that will stop, but I think I [inaudible 00:06:46] very first of these that… It’s pretty remarkable that back in 1950, or whatever it was, the first self-service supermarket persuaded us to push our own trolley around a store and do self-picking and self-packing. It’s just crazy when you think back at it.
Darren A. Smith:
Very true. Very true. All right. What’s your prediction?
Andrew Grant:
Well, there’s another one linked to that, with your prediction of 50% of people shopping online. Will the world run out of vans?
Darren A. Smith:
Run out of vans, Transit vans?
Andrew Grant:
Well, other makes of van are available, but yeah, will the world run out of delivery Transit vans? Because that’s all I see on the roads now is delivery van after delivery van.
Darren A. Smith:
I saw a lovely viral video the other day of the Hermes driver versus the Amazon driver versus the DPD driver, and what they do differently. And one, let’s say, was a lot more polite and a lot more what you would want than the other.
Andrew Grant:
Actually, just on that, total aside, but [inaudible 00:07:56] inside the FedEx logo.
Darren A. Smith:
Yes. You’ve told me about this. Go on. I won’t steal your thunder.
Andrew Grant:
No, it’s great fun. Look for the arrow between the D and the E, or is it the E and the X, the E and the X in FedEx. There is an arrow pointing forwards, which is obviously is a perfect depiction of what they do. It’s like one of those pictures, once you see the arrow, that’s all you’ll ever see. Right, what’s your next prediction, Darren?
Darren A. Smith:
All right. Well, I’m going to go for data versus insight. I think as an industry we talk about data and insight an awful lot and people think that they are interchangeable, they’re not. So data might be I buy eight packs or eight bottles of Ghost Ship, one of my favourite beers, every week. That’s data. The insight is the reason I like it is because of its citrusy flavour and because my mate drinks it as well. That’s the insight.
Andrew Grant:
Okay.
Darren A. Smith:
So we’ve got to get from data to insight. And over the years, and I’m sure you saw it as well, I was presented lots of data, but no one really took it from, “Okay. Here’s a bunch of numbers, statistics. This is the insight and this is what you can do with it.” And that, I think, has got to come, particularly as 50% of shopping will be online and we’ll get even more data.
Andrew Grant:
Well, yeah. And that’s where you get some brilliant low hanging fruit. I used to love the sort of data where [inaudible 00:09:23] come along and say, “Look, it’s 60% of your shoppers buy fresh produce from you, but only 30% buy fresh meat.” So if they’re buying your produce, why aren’t they buying your meat? You’ve got an opportunity to double your meat business. And home shopping brings that exactly to life. So if somebody is ordering all their toilet rolls for home delivery, why aren’t they ordering their bleach and their cleaning products and their batteries and their kitchen towel, disposable kitchen towels, all the household stuff? There’ll be some massive insight opportunities in that sort of data.
Darren A. Smith:
One of my favourite ones is slabs of Heineken. They used to put on there, “Win FA Cup tickets.” But what some bright spark figured out, let’s call a shopper insights manager, a SIM, was that actually, the ladies were buying it for the husbands. So the offer became get a free spa day, Heineken went up.
Andrew Grant:
Well, there you go. Right. Final prediction from me.
Darren A. Smith:
Prediction, the final one. Go on. What have you got?
Andrew Grant:
Asda and convenience stores. Obviously, they’re now owned by those brothers that are preeminent forecourt retailers. Marry that to Asda and it will be interesting to see. I think they’ve got three stores called On the Move already, but it will be interesting to see what a convenience Asda looks like. They’ve tried it in the past, not so easy to go from big-box retailing with all the efficiencies and simplicity to something of 10,000 square feet or less in a city centre with lots of hassle and lots of operational issues. I’m not going to make a prediction as to how well they do or don’t, but I’ll be fascinated to visit some.
Darren A. Smith:
A much more complex supply chain and management. Okay. We’re up. Andrew, I’m going to thank you for 2020 and your Grocery Guru insight, and we’ll see you in 2021.
Andrew Grant:
I shall see you on the other side. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Darren A. Smith:
Happy New Year. Thank you. Take care.
